Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

07 February 2025

By

Coal Weekly (31 Jan – 06 Feb 2025): Avg. USD 116.2/ton (-0.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, average coal prices remained flattish at USD 116.2/ton (-0.2% WoW), peaking at USD 118.8/t on 3 February. Coal market found support from China’s 15% tariff on US coal imports, effective 10 February 2025. The move, a retaliation against US tariffs on Chinese goods, raised concerns over global coal supply disruptions, briefly boosting prices.
  • However, prices may face downward pressure as Indonesia raises its 2025 coal production target to 735 Mt (+4.0% YoY), while Australia’s December coal exports climbed to 7.7 Mt (+15.4% MoM). Additionally, China’s 2025 coal output is expected to grow +1.5% YoY to 4.82 billion tons, and Mongolia’s 2024 coal exports to China surged to 83 million tons, up from 70 million tons in 2023, amplifying concerns of global supply glut.
  • Given these conflicting market signals, we cut our 2025 coal price forecast from USD 120/t to USD 115/t (YTD: USD 118.2/t). On the stock front, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E of 12.8x) remains our top pick, backed by its expansion into green energy and earnings contributions from ADMR and SIS.

Share This:

batu bara china

Download PDF

Download PDF

UPDATE_Coal_Weekly_20250207

Download PDF

UPDATE_Coal_Weekly_20250207

More Related

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 14, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 14, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 13, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 13, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 13, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 12, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 12, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 12, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 11, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 11, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 10, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 10, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 10, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 7, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 7, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 7, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 6, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 6, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 5, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 5, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 5, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 4, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 4, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 4, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 3, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 3, 2025

Economic Reports

Mar 3, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Mar 3, 2025

Morning Briefs

Mar 3, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 28, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 28, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 27, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 27, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 26, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 26, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 25, 2025

Company Reports

Feb 25, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 25, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 24, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 24, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 24, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 24, 2025

Company Reports

Feb 21, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 21, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 21, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 20, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 20, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 20, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 20, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 19, 2025

Company Reports

Feb 19, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 18, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 18, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 17, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 17, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 17, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 17, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 17, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 14, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 14, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 13, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 13, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 13, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 12, 2025

Morning Briefs

Feb 12, 2025

Technical Stock Analysis

Feb 12, 2025

Economic Reports

Feb 11, 2025