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17 January 2025

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Coal Weekly (10 – 16 January 2025): Avg. USD 116/ton (-3.4% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, average coal prices dropped to USD 115.4/ton (-3.4% WoW), hitting two-year low on Thursday (16/1) at USD 114.6/ton. The decline signals potential end of coal supercycle amid weak demand and limited catalysts for price recovery.
  • China’s 2024 coal imports reached a record 542.7 Mt (+14.4% YoY; 2023: 474.4 Mt), with December imports rising +10.7% YoY. However, higher-than-average winter temperatures (+1.6°C than average) have suppressed consumption, leading to elevated inventory levels and limiting import demand’s role in stabilizing prices.
  • In FY24, average coal price reached USD 136.4/t (SSI: USD 136). For FY25, we maintain our forecast at USD 120/t (YTD: USD 118.3), down -12.0% YoY, due to economic uncertainties and oversupply pressures, though upcoming CNY could serve as short-term positive catalyst for coal demand. On the stock front, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E of 12.8x) is our top pick, primarily due to its green business initiatives as well as ADMR and SIS’ contributions to earnings.

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