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09 September 2024

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Coal Weekly (09 September 2024): USD 142/ton (-2.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 02 – 06 September 2024, coal prices averaged USD 141.6 (-2.2% WoW) as the global coal market faced increasing pressure due to various challenges.
  • With European coal consumption falling 8% year-on-year, global demand continued to weaken as the world is shifting to renewable energy. In Asia, coal imports fell 5%, partly due to the 4.2% rise in China’s 2Q24 domestic coal production. India’s plans to reduce coal usage by 10% over two years and Indonesia’s 2% potential export tax hike are also weighing on the market. In addition, industrial output in the US and Europe dropped 2.5% and 1.8%, reducing energy demand and further pressuring coal prices.
  • Given ongoing concerns about potential global economic slowdown and decreased world demand, we maintain our FY24 coal price forecast at USD 130/ton (YTD: USD 135.0/ton). Stock-wise, we prefer ADRO with TP of IDR 3,600 (FY24 P/E of 5.1x) as our top pick, primarily due to its green aluminum project set to commence in 2025.

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