Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

20 November 2024

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Samuel Daily Economic Insights 20 November 2024

Ikhtisar

Kerangka ekonomi dan kebijakan Indonesia mengalami perubahan substansial di bawah pemerintahan Presiden Prabowo, salah satunya realokasi anggaran infrastruktur untuk tujuan-tujuan strategis seperti ketahanan pangan dan energy, termasuk inisiatif senilai IDR 71 triliun guna mendukung pencapaian swasembada dalam lima tahun. Bank Indonesia diperkirakan akan menurunkan suku bunga sebagai bagian dari strategi front-loading di tengah ketidakpastian moneter global. Pemerintah tengah mempertimbangkan usulan kenaikan PPN sebesar 12% dan program amnesti pajak ketiga, yang memicu perdebatan signifikan. Komitmen investasi dari Tiongkok dan Brasil, ditambah dengan target pemrosesan hilir yang ambisius dan inisiatif energi terbarukan, menjadi pendorong potensial bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, meningkatnya ketegangan AS-Tiongkok, serta hambatan tata kelola domestik seperti lambatnya pemindahan ibu kota Nusantara, menimbulkan risiko. Pada saat yang sama, kemajuan dalam transformasi digital, yang didukung oleh investasi sebesar USD 1.2 miliar, dan kebijakan lingkungan menandakan kemajuan, meskipun masalah deforestasi di Papua tetap menjadi masalah mendesak bagi agenda iklim Indonesia.

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